With new residential construction at its lowest point in 50 years and job losses continuing to mount, Ventura County’s economy will continue to sputter this year before finally showing true signs of recovering in 2011, industry forecasters are saying.

Already the housing market has stabilized and new gains are expected, but the optimism has been checked by persistent unemployment.

“Job contraction has been horrific,” said Mark Schniepp, director of the California Economic Forecast during a 2010 real estate preview for industry professionals last week in Westlake Village.

“Not until we see more job creation will the consensus be that this recession is over,” Schniepp said.

Ventura County’s unemployment is 10.9 percent, more than a point higher than the national average.

The bleak employment picture “blows away anything from the ’70s and ’80s,” said Wells Fargo senior economist Scott Anderson, who also spoke at the event.

Recovery in the housing market is usually the first sign that a recession is ending.

And although new construction remains stalled, existing home sales have rallied and led to a boost in the county’s median home price, which is now $427,900, or more than 15 percent higher than last year at this time.

Still, the median home price in Ventura County remains some 35 percent below the peak of 2006.

“The affordability is great here in Ventura County right now,” said Schniepp, who added, “After this quarter and next, the defaults really start to fall.”

The Calabasas median home price is the highest in the West Los Angeles/East Ventura County region at $905,750. Simi Valley has the lowest at $370,190.

Housing upswing

The experts fear a dent in the residential real estate recovery due to seasonally slow sales and a decline in government-backed buyer incentives but say the market will rebound noticeably by the end of the year and possibly attain double-digit appreciation again by mid-decade.

“As fast as the foreclosures are being released they’re being sold,” said Mark Boud of Irvine-based Real Estate Economics. “We’re burning off distressed sales faster than we’re creating them.”

“There is such a thing as business cycle. We’re not going to be down forever,” Anderson said.

Home resales will continue to lead the market, and new homes will be built only as they are sold.

New U.S. home building is off 80 percent from its 2006 peak.

In Camarillo, construction continues on Village at the Park, a 1,040-unit master-planned community in the Easton Crossing and Cedar Creek neighborhoods.

The Springville Specific Plan calls for up to 1,350 homes near the 101 Freeway between Los Posas Road and Central Avenue. Pardee Homes’ Moorpark Highlands will bring 550 units to Spring Road and Charles Street.

The 460-home Runkle Canyon development in Simi awaits an environmental ruling. A 140-unit affordable housing project in Thousand Oaks was put on hold due to cost issues.

Commercial real estate blues

A loss of jobs and businesses sent the area’s office market into a tailspin last year and the recovery graph will resemble a “flat U,” Schniepp’s forecast says.

With the Bank of America/ Countrywide merger playing a big role, the office vacancy rate in the county stood at 23 percent by December.

Builders are banking on a rebound. The 462,000-square-foot Westlake Park Place office building is under construction in Thousand Oaks; the 300,000square-foot Patriot Commerce office/industrial park is under way in Moorpark, and the approximately 500,000-square-foot Paseo Camino Real retail and office project in Camarillo is approved but on hold.

The total amount of Ventura commercial real estate projects in planning or under construction is 22 million square feet, down 11 percent from the previous year.

The proposed Moorpark West Studios is the biggest project at 560,000 square feet. Also in Moorpark, grading is under way on the 340,000-square-foot North Hills Industrial Park.

Simi Valley’s 166,000-squarefoot West Simi Business Center is in the application stage. Camarillo’s 133,400-square-foot Semtech industrial building is under construction.

There were no new retail developments that opened in the area last year, and sales were nonexistent.

“Consumers are going to be the weak link in this recovery,” said Anderson. “The reason is the decline in household wealth. The majority of households are still struggling.”

The 70,000-square-foot Summit at Calabasas shopping center on Lost Hills Road will open late in the year.

The 164,000-square-foot Ventu Park retail center is off the ground in Newbury Park, and a Target store has been approved for Simi Valley.