The regional economy is in the early stages of recovery.

That’s the good news.

But 2010 could be a slow-and-go year if consumer spending remains sluggish and the job picture doesn’t begin to improve. At least the housing sector has started to rebound, and judging by the way things were this time last year, that’s the best news of all. We fell hard in 2009 and need a little love this Valentine’s weekend to make us feel better about the future.

Today’s page 1 story details two major components of the recovery, employment and real estate, and what the industry experts are forecasting for the coming year and beyond.

Although the area unemployment rate is still higher than the national average and consumer spending remains in check, home prices from Calabasas to Camarillo have rebounded due to record low mortgage rates and a plethora of distress sales. By December 2009, median home prices had rallied 15 percent year over year.

With the perception that home prices have hit their bottom, sales volume will start to inch upward. Prices will continue to rise, the experts believe, albeit slowly as the focus of activity shifts from short sales and foreclosures to conventional purchases. In western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties, another 10 percent boost in the median price is likely in 2010. New home builders are even talking about ramping up production, but heaven help us if they overbuild like they did in the previous decade. We’re still paying the price for that.

The fact that foreclosures are falling is good news in itself.

“Even if foreclosures rebound to form a second peak as they did in the last housing cycle in the mid-’90s, a relapse in selling is still unlikely because the general economy is improving,” says the California Economic Forecast, a trusted crystal ball in the industry.

Sadly, the down business cycle makes it difficult to forecast much improvement in commercial real estate. Layoffs and store closings have led to increased vacancies. It’s a buyer’s market in the office arena, and shopping center sales and construction are at a standstill.

Maybe it’s a good thing we’re being forced to stop and catch our breath. Nothing goes up forever, but nothing goes down forever either.