Simi could reach build out by next year, study says

Simi Valley's population will increase by 15,000 people- a change of just 12 percent- in the next 32 years, according to a recent forecast adopted by the Ventura Council of Governments (VCOG) and the county Board of Supervisors.

By comparison, the study estimates the total population in Ventura County will increase by 24 percent, or 1,002,433 residents.

Nevertheless, even an increase of that amount means more residential units must be built, and the city, like others in the county, is running out of space to build them, according to Kim Hawking, senior planner with the county of Ventura.

"We don't have enough vacant land within the SOAR (Save Open Space and Agricultural Resources) boundaries to accommodate that growth," Hawking said. "We don't know what's going to happen, but if we keep the SOAR boundaries the same, we might have to build at higher densities."

The VCOG 2040 Forecast, which was created using the general plans of the 10 Ventura County cities- Simi Valley, Moorpark, Thousand Oaks, Fillmore, Santa Paula, Camarillo, Oxnard, Port Hueneme, Ventura and Ojai- predicts that 135,708 people will be living in Simi by the year 2040- compared to the 120,975 estimated by using the 2000 census as a benchmark.

Hawking said officials adopted the forecast- which targeted three areas: population, housing and jobs- to help educate the public about what changes may be necessary in the future as the number of people living in the area grows.

"The intent is to have a number for the future that we can all plan for," Hawking said. "The idea is that the cities will continue to use it in their general plans."

Hawking said there are several issues that need to be addressed when an area experiences growth, including traffic, availability of public resources and conservation of open space.

In the case of Ventura County, the study found that the amount of available land zoned for residential is not sufficient to house the projected increase in population.

The report predicts that vacant developable land in Simi Valley will run out by 2009.

Rob Bruce, deputy director of housing and special projects with the city of Simi Valley, said that a population increase of 12 percent over the next 32 years is not unreasonable, and that the city will be prepared to handle it.

"We're currently undergoing the exercise of drafting a new General Plan," Bruce said. "One thing (the General Plan Advisory Committee) is taking a look at is reusing the tired, older commercial areas- ones that are not fully occupied for one reason or another. They're considering whether those should remain 100 percent commercial or if we should move towards mixeduse."

Official adoption of the forecast comes as the final step in the analysis of VCOG's "Decapolis 2040" report- a detailed study of eight population projections that are based on assumed changes in demographic and economic conditions in the county.

The general plans projection- one of the eight in the study- was deemed to be the most accurate, and was therefore adopted as the VCOG 2040 Forecast, Hawking said.

Other projections estimated in Decapolis 2040 illustrate population changes due to housing costs, increases in birth rate, increased life span, and migration into the county or lack thereof.

"It's a very complicated subject," Hawking said. "This report is good because it helps people understand that there are different variables when you forecast."

In 2005, the United States Department of Finance estimated that Ventura County had a total population of 811,202.

Simi Valley's total population was 120,975. Both figures were derived by using Census 2000 information as a benchmark.

While Hawking could not confirm that all Ventura County cities would eventually turn more toward higher density zoning or mixeduse developments- those that combine residential and commercial uses- he said that significant changes will have to be made in order to accommodate the increasing population.

"That's what the report is all about- to ask those tough questions," Hawking said. "Basically it says there's a tsunami coming and we need to think about how we're going to deal with it."
VCOG 2040
Household by Age Group and Ethnicity
Simi Valley: 2005