The Academy Awards

Is 2005 destined to be the year of the cowpoke? The definitive front-runner for this year’s Best Picture is clearly Ang Lee’s “Brokeback Mountain.” The film could snag several Oscars for a couple of reasons.

First, despite its content, “Brokeback” isn’t a preachy film. Unlike recent “message” films “9/11,” “Syriana” or even fellow nominee “Crash,” “Brokeback” tells its story with a quiet, simple dignity.

The second reason is a little less cinematic. Hollywood is a notoriously liberal town, and current national politics and policies are making Hollywood unhappy. If “Brokeback Mountain” cleans up at this year’s Academy Awards (it’s been nominated in eight categories), I believe it will, in part, be sending a message to Washington. Cowboys can’t marry yet, but they sure can ride.

Best Supporting Actress

“Brokeback” may sweep this Sunday (Michelle Williams nicely plays Heath Ledger’s long-suffering wife), but I believe Rachel Weisz’ performance in “The Constant Gardener” deserves the Oscar. Frances McDormand plays Charlize Theron’s fellow iron miner in “North Country”—an okay movie with a good cast. Catherine Keener’s laconic performance may have gone largely unnoticed in Philip Seymour Hoffman’s imposing shadow in “Capote.”

I admit to not having seen the independent “Junebug,” whose scarcity in theaters (grossing under $5 million to date) may hurt Amy Adams’ chances.

This Critic’s Pick: Rachel Weisz

Probable Winner: Rachel Weisz

Best Supporting Actor

Again, unless “Brokeback” sweeps and honors Jake Gyllenhaal, I think the tossup is between artificially chunky George Clooney (“Syriana”) and silvertongued Paul Giamatti (“Cinderella Man”). Hollywood has a soft spots for both actors—and William Hurt didn’t have the screen time in “A History of Violence” to merit the award.

Matt Dillon did well in this year’s underdog “Crash,” but his part was only a puzzle piece in a decent ensemble cast, and voters may not want to single him out. Somewhere tonight, Clooney will be honored.

This Critic’s Pick: George Clooney

Probable Winner: George Clooney

Best Actress

A Best Actress is hard to find in a film about gay cowboys, so don’t look for “Brokeback” here. Reese Witherspoon reportedly worked long and hard not only to sing, but to sing like June Carter—and Hollywood does appreciate true grit. I believe she’ll be “Walk the Line’s” only win in Oscar’s major categories.

Charlize Theron (“North Country”) won a BA statue two years ago for a similar tough-girl portrayal in “Monster,” so don’t expect a repeat win. Nor do I believe “Mrs. Henderson Presents” has the legs to support Judi Dench’s sentimental nomination. Rumor has it that the nominations for Felicity Huffman (“Transamerica”) and new A-lister Keira Knightley (“Pride & Prejudice”) are merely bugle soundings for Hollywood to sit up and take notice of both performers.

This Critic’s Pick: Reese Witherspoon

Probable Winner: Reese Witherspoon

Best Actor

Here’s the real testament to “Brokeback Mountain’s” dominance— because this one could be a horse race. “Brokeback’s” Heath Ledger is my bookie’s favorite, although Philip Seymour Hoffman’s performance in “Capote” is hard to ignore.

Terrence Howard’s portrayal of a rapping pimp in “Hustle & Flow” is a deserving nod to the man’s perseverance in Hollywood (Howard also appears in this year’s “Crash” and “Four Brothers”), but likely won’t win him an award. Likewise, veteran David Strathairn (“Good Night, and Good Luck”) is finally being acknowledged for an illustrious tenure in a tough town and for so uncannily inhabiting journalist Edward R. Murrow.

I don’t think Joaquin Phoenix will win, simply because Jamie Foxx won last year for “Ray,” another musical biopic, and in Hollywood, timing is everything.

This Critic’s Pick: David Strathairn

Probable Winner: Phillip Seymour Hoffman

Best Director

This one’s a lock. Ang Lee’s got the momentum for turning out the year’s most talked about film. But even if Jake Gyllenhaal’s character had been played by— say, Julianne Moore––Lee’s picture would still be beautifully crafted. He’s not winning for “Brokeback’s” gayness; he’s winning for a magnificently rendered, emotionally taut film.

By the same token, I believe that George Clooney, directing only his second feature film, took an enormous gamble filming “Good Night, and Good Luck” as a noiresque, starkly shadowed black-and-white thriller. Steven Spielberg’s antiwar message wasn’t quite antiwar enough in his dark, angry “Munich,” and I don’t believe either first-time director Paul Haggis (“Crash”) or Bennett Miller (“Capote”) have the gravitas to win.

This Critic’s Pick: George Clooney Probable Winner: Ang Lee

Best Film

I may as well shoot the moon. I think “Brokeback Mountain” is going to win. I don’t believe any other nomination—“Capote,” “Crash,” “Good Night, and Good Luck” or “Munich” really has a chance. And because I gave Clooney my vote as Best Director (and expect my Oscar party invitation any day now) I’m going to jump on the bandwagon and go with Ang Lee’s film. If Hollywood can be politicized— hey, so can I. If his film can even minutely help push back bigotry and hatred and nonacceptance for all things different from the norm, I’m all for it.

This Critic’s Pick: “Brokeback Mountain”

Probable Winner: “Brokeback Mountain”